---
title: "120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader? — Before Jan 1, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 12402.5
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T05:48:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader-before-jan-1-2027
---

# 120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Live · $12,402 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

House Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Emmer | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Mike Johnson | 3% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Jim Jordan | — | — | — |
| Steve Scalise | — | — | — |
| August Pfluger | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/781123?via=md)

---

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