---
title: "2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — At the release of the national House popular vote data"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/2026-2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot-at-the-release-of-the-national-house-popular-vote-data
status: live
kickoff_at: 2027-11-03T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8260431.59
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:02:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/2026-2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot-at-the-release-of-the-national-house-popular-vote-data
---

# 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — At the release of the national House popular vote data

Live · kickoff 2027-11-03 00:00 UTC · $8,260,432 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 0-2% | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Republicans 0-2% | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ |
| Democrats 2-4% | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Republicans 2-4% | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ |
| Democrats 4-6% | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Republicans 4-6% | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ |
| Democrats 6-8% | — | 0.1¢ on Kalshi | 0.1¢ | 0.8¢ |
| Republicans 6%+ | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ |
| Democrats 8-10% | — | 0.1¢ on Kalshi | 0.1¢ | 0.4¢ |
| Democrats 10-12% | — | 0.4¢ on Kalshi | 0.4¢ | 0.6¢ |
| Democrats 12-14% | 10% | 9.5¢ on Polymarket | 10¢ | 9.5¢ |
| Democrats 14-16% | 80% | 80¢ on Kalshi | 80¢ | 82¢ |
| Democrats 16%+ | 3% | 3.7¢ on Polymarket | 3.7¢ | 3.8¢ |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| Republicans win | — | 0.1¢ on Kalshi | 0.1¢ | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1090?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5573?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/2026-2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot-at-the-release-of-the-national-house-popular-vote-data).

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