---
title: "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-directional-democratic-minus-republican-national-house-popular-vote-margin
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 33118.46
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:25:34+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-directional-democratic-minus-republican-national-house-popular-vote-margin
---

# 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin

Live · $33,118 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket US

## About

The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Ranges

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party 0-2% | 3% | 3¢ on Polymarket US | 3¢ |
| Republican Party 0-2% | 2% | 2¢ on Polymarket US | 2¢ |
| Democratic Party 2-4% | 6% | 6¢ on Polymarket US | 6¢ |
| Republican Party 2-4% | 2% | 2¢ on Polymarket US | 2¢ |
| Democratic Party 4-6% | 11% | 11¢ on Polymarket US | 11¢ |
| Republican Party 4-6% | 2% | 2¢ on Polymarket US | 2¢ |
| Democratic Party 6-8% | 11% | 11¢ on Polymarket US | 11¢ |
| Republican Party 6%+ | — | 1¢ on Polymarket US | 1¢ |
| Democratic Party 8-10% | 28% | 28¢ on Polymarket US | 28¢ |
| Democratic Party 10-12% | 24% | 24¢ on Polymarket US | 24¢ |
| Democratic Party 12-14% | 10% | 10¢ on Polymarket US | 10¢ |
| Democratic Party 14-16% | 3% | 3¢ on Polymarket US | 3¢ |
| Democratic Party 16%+ | 3% | 3¢ on Polymarket US | 3¢ |

## Other markets

- Thresholds — 9 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/565593?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/485399?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-directional-democratic-minus-republican-national-house-popular-vote-margin.

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