---
title: "2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-vs-generic-ballot-house-popular-vote-margin-minus-final-votehub-generic-ballot-margin
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-03-01T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5424
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:44:44+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-vs-generic-ballot-house-popular-vote-margin-minus-final-votehub-generic-ballot-margin
---

# 2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin

Live · kickoff 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC · $5,424 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| R+0.9 to D+0.9 | 27% | 29¢ on Kalshi | 29¢ |
| R+1 to R+2.9 | — | — | — |
| D+1 to D+2.9 | — | — | — |
| R+3 to R+4.9 | — | — | — |
| D+3 to D+4.9 | — | — | — |
| R+5 to R+6.9 | — | — | — |
| D+5 to D+6.9 | — | — | — |
| R+7 or more | — | — | — |
| D+7 or more | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/686936?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-vs-generic-ballot-house-popular-vote-margin-minus-final-votehub-generic-ballot-margin.

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