---
title: "5kt meteor strike in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-03-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 314728.8
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:59:44+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026
---

# 5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Live · $314,729 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 83% | 90¢ on Polymarket | 90¢ |
| Yes | 18% | 25¢ on Polymarket | 25¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5257?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026.

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