---
title: "Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 23079.8
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Crypto"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:45:31+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31
---

# Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Live · $23,080 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98% | 98¢ on Polymarket | 98¢ |
| Yes | 2% | 2.5¢ on Polymarket | 2.5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6456?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31.

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