---
title: "AI regulation by 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ai-regulation-by-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 59772.62
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics", "Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:29:21+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ai-regulation-by-2027
---

# AI regulation by 2027?

Live · $59,773 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.

The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products. An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Yes | 6% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2358?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ai-regulation-by-2027.

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