---
title: "AL MVP Winner? — 2026 season"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/al-mvp-winner-2026-season
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-08T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5298397.58
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:19:22+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/al-mvp-winner-2026-season
---

# AL MVP Winner? — 2026 season

Live · $5,298,398 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket US

## About

This market asks who will win the American League Most Valuable Player award for the 2026 MLB season, with resolution tied to the official league announcement expected by early December 2026. The market is listed on Kalshi, which carries essentially all of the volume at roughly $4.09m, and on Gemini, where activity is minimal at around $3,380. Each named outcome pays out if that player is declared the AL MVP, with a separate line for a tie or co-winners scenario.

Yordan Álvarez is the runaway favourite at a 93.0% consensus, priced at 91.0% on Kalshi and 95.0% on Gemini — a 4.0-point cross-platform gap on the same name. Behind him, the field is extremely flat: Junior Caminero sits at a 7.5% consensus (8.0% Kalshi, 7.0% Gemini), Bobby Witt Jr. at 2.5%, and a long tail of AL regulars including Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, José Ramírez and Tarik Skubal each pinned near 1.0–1.5%. Dillon Dingler shows an unusual 26.0% consensus figure driven by a wide 24.5-point spread, though both underlying platform quotes (Kalshi 2.0%, Gemini 3.0%) are low.

Across both venues, traders are treating Álvarez as an overwhelming favourite, with only minor pricing disagreement at the top of the board.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-23; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Álvarez | 96% | 96¢ on Kalshi | — | 96¢ | 96¢ |
| Junior Caminero | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 2¢ | 2.3¢ |
| Cam Schlittler | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | — | 2¢ | — |
| Colson Montgomery | 0.7% | 0.7¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.7¢ |
| Aaron Judge | 0.3% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.3¢ |
| Dillon Dingler | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| José Ramírez | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Pete Alonso | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Maikel García | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Miguel Vargas | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 48¢ | 1¢ | — |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | 1¢ on Gemini | 1¢ | 1¢ | — |
| Cal Raleigh | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Gunnar Henderson | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Julio Rodríguez | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 1¢ | — |
| Nick Kurtz | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Roman Anthony | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jeremy Peña | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Corey Seager | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Carlos Correa | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Cody Bellinger | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Zach Neto | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Wyatt Langford | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Byron Buxton | — | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Alejandro Kirk | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adley Rutschman | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jo Adell | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Tarik Skubal | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Garrett Crochet | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Riley Greene | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jacob Wilson | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jackson Holliday | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Josh Naylor | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Mike Trout | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jose Altuve | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Steven Kwan | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| George Springer | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jarren Duran | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Ben Rice | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 1¢ | — |
| Randy Arozarena | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Trevor Story | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Daulton Varsho | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Brent Rooker | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Shea Langeliers | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Munetaka Murakami | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Chase DeLauter | — | — | — | — | — |

_6 more outcomes on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299959?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2485?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299621?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/al-mvp-winner-2026-season.

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