---
title: "Alaska Governor Election Winner  "
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/alaska-governor-election-winner
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3242067.45
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:13:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/alaska-governor-election-winner
---

# Alaska Governor Election Winner  

Live · $3,242,067 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

This market resolves on the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. On Polymarket, resolution requires the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to all call the race for the same candidate, otherwise defaulting to official certification. The event is listed across Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Gemini, with the bulk of activity (roughly $1.19M in volume) concentrated on Polymarket.

Nick Begich is the clear favourite at a consensus 70.0%, currently only quoted on Gemini. Behind him, Dave Bronson sits at 51.0% on Polymarket US, and Bernadette Wilson prices tightly across venues at 39.0% on both Polymarket US and Gemini versus 35.5% on Polymarket, a modest 2-point spread. The wide field of lower-probability candidates suggests markets still view the race as unsettled beyond Begich.

The most striking cross-platform gaps sit in the mid-tier. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins trades at 31.5% on Polymarket and 29.0% on Gemini but just 4.0% on Polymarket US, a 27.9-point spread. Click Bishop shows 23.0% on Polymarket US versus 4.9% on Polymarket, and Adam Crum is 15.0% on Polymarket US against 0.2% on Polymarket. Overall, platforms broadly agree Begich leads decisively, but disagree sharply on who ranks next.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-24; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 99% | 99¢ on Polymarket US | — | 99¢ | 100¢ | 99¢ |
| Treg Taylor | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Dave Bronson | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Bernadette Wilson | 0.8% | 0.5¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ | 1.2¢ | 0.5¢ | 2¢ |
| Click Bishop | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Adam Crum | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Edna DeVries | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Matt Heilala | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Shelley Hughes | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| James Parkin | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Lisa Murkowski | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Tom Begich | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Mary Peltola | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Hank Kroll | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Bruce Walden | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Matt Claman | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Lesil McGuire | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | 0.1¢ | — |
| Gregg Brelsford | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Jessica Faircloth | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Bill Walker | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Matthew Claman | — | 0.1¢ on Kalshi | — | 0.1¢ | — | — |
| Nick Begich | — | — | — | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299937?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293459?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5071?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/301158?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/alaska-governor-election-winner).

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