---
title: "Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/alaska-senate-election-margin-of-victory-first-round
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-03T12:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3505.06
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:21:19+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/alaska-senate-election-margin-of-victory-first-round
---

# Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Live · $3,505 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peltola 0-3% | 30% | 31¢ on Polymarket | 31¢ |
| Sullivan 0-3% | 16% | 29¢ on Polymarket | 29¢ |
| Peltola 3-6% | 26% | 27¢ on Polymarket | 27¢ |
| Sullivan 3-6% | 12% | 13¢ on Polymarket | 13¢ |
| Peltola 6-9% | 7% | 12¢ on Polymarket | 12¢ |
| Sullivan 6-9% | 7% | 11¢ on Polymarket | 11¢ |
| Peltola 9-12% | 5% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| Sullivan 9-12% | 5% | 7.5¢ on Polymarket | 7.5¢ |
| Peltola 12+% | 4% | 6¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ |
| Sullivan 12+% | 5% | 8.5¢ on Polymarket | 8.5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/554321?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/alaska-senate-election-margin-of-victory-first-round.

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