---
title: "Alaska Senate margin of victory — On November 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory-on-november-3-2026-kalshi-5b1c5218
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 86878.95
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:37:55+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory-on-november-3-2026-kalshi-5b1c5218
---

# Alaska Senate margin of victory — On November 3, 2026

Live · $86,879 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mary Peltola minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mary Peltola if Mary Peltola wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mary Peltola loses.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mary Peltola runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mary Peltola will be summed.

If Mary Peltola wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mary Peltola loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mary Peltola ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mary Peltola is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, 0.5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 1+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 1.5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 2+ pts | 78% | 78¢ on Kalshi | 78¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 2.5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 3+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 3.5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 4+ pts | 26% | 28¢ on Kalshi | 28¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 4.5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 6+ pts | 7% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 8+ pts | — | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 10+ pts | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/941020?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory-on-november-3-2026-kalshi-5b1c5218).

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