---
title: "Another NATO article 4 by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/another-nato-article-4-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 180224
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:52:21+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/another-nato-article-4-by
---

# Another NATO article 4 by...?

Live · $180,224 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.

For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 9¢ on Polymarket | 9¢ |
| No | 93% | 94¢ on Polymarket | 94¢ |

## Other markets

- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/108641?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/another-nato-article-4-by.

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