---
title: "Arizona vs Cleveland"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/arizona-vs-cleveland-kalshi-92d025f7
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-08-01T23:15:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-08T23:15:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-08-02T02:59:45+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8324964.05
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:11:45+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/arizona-vs-cleveland-kalshi-92d025f7
---

# Arizona vs Cleveland

Settled · kickoff 2026-08-01 23:15 UTC · $8,324,964 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Arizona Diamondbacks** won. Settled 2026-08-02.

## About

This August 1 matchup at Progressive Field pits the Arizona Diamondbacks (58-52) against the Cleveland Guardians (56-55) in the third game of a series, with Cleveland's Parker Messick taking the mound against Arizona's Kohl Drake. On the moneyline, the Guardians are the clear favourite across both active platforms: Kalshi prices Cleveland at 83.0%, while Polymarket sits marginally lower at 82.0% — a tight 1.0-point cross-platform spread that signals strong consensus. The implied win probability gap is substantial, with Cleveland roughly 65 points ahead of Arizona's 18.0% chance on both platforms.

The pitching matchup drives the lopsided odds. Parker Messick enters with an 8-6 record, a 2.59 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP, and has given up just one earned run across his last four starts. The Diamondbacks rank 22nd in ISO against left-handed pitching on the road, compounding the challenge. Arizona counters with Kohl Drake, whose command problems — particularly a 4.0 BB/9 — make Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno the primary threats in the early innings. The run-total markets lean toward a lower-scoring game: Kalshi puts the over 8.5 runs at 88.0%, but the spread markets price Cleveland -1.5 at 73.0% for the first five innings alone. Despite the market favouring Cleveland heavily, Arizona is 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Guardians and has won their last four visits in Cleveland — a historical wrinkle the moneyline markets appear to be discounting. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are in near-lockstep on Cleveland, making the cross-platform takeaway straightforward: there is essentially no arbitrage opportunity on the game winner here.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-02; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 14 outcomes
- Home Runs — 8 outcomes
- Hits — 14 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 20 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total Bases — 70 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 18 outcomes
- RBIs — 39 outcomes
- Spread — 7 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 11.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 13.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 14.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 15.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 16.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 18.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 19.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 46 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/134519?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/121135?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/arizona-vs-cleveland-kalshi-92d025f7.

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