---
title: "Arizona vs Cleveland"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/arizona-vs-cleveland
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-31T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-07T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-08-01T01:49:37+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3656646.23
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:51:52+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/arizona-vs-cleveland
---

# Arizona vs Cleveland

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-31 23:10 UTC · $3,656,646 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Arizona Diamondbacks** won. Settled 2026-08-01.

## About

This market covers the July 31, 2026 MLB opener between the Arizona Diamondbacks (57–52) and Cleveland Guardians (56–54) at Progressive Field, with the moneyline winner market serving as the headline bet across Kalshi and Polymarket. Arizona is the overwhelming favourite, priced at 91.0% on Kalshi and 88.0%–91.0% across Polymarket's listings — a roughly 3-point cross-platform spread that is modest but the widest notable gap in the event. Cleveland sits at just 9.0%–10.0% implied probability, reflecting a steep underdog position despite being the home side. Traditional sportsbooks actually have Cleveland as a slight moneyline favourite (CLE –141), making the prediction-market pricing a notable divergence — the markets appear to be pricing a game already in progress or heavily influenced by in-game action at the time of the snapshot, rather than pre-game odds.

Tanner Bibee (4–10, 3.89 ERA) draws the start for Cleveland, while Arizona sends Mitch Bratt (0–1, 6.32 ERA) to the mound — a meaningful pitching edge for the home team on paper. The total-runs markets on Kalshi show near-certainty (99.0%) for scores clearing 2.5 and 3.5, consistent with a high-scoring game already underway. Arizona carries a .242 average and a below-league-average hard-hit rate, yet the 91.0% win probability suggests the Diamondbacks have built a commanding lead mid-game. The spread market on Kalshi prices Arizona winning by more than 3.5 runs at 35.0%, reinforcing that notion.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket align tightly on the moneyline winner, with the 1-point spread between platforms representing negligible disagreement. The snapshot tells a story of a live market that has tilted heavily toward Arizona despite Cleveland's pre-game pitching and home-field advantages.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-01; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 14 outcomes
- Home Runs — 6 outcomes
- Hits — 12 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 3 outcomes
- Total Bases — 73 outcomes
- RBIs — 38 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 90 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cleveland Guardians — 2 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Brayan Rocchio: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brayan Rocchio: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chase DeLauter: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chase DeLauter: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Corbin Carroll: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Corbin Carroll: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Geraldo Perdomo: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Geraldo Perdomo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Ketel Marte: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Ketel Marte: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 12 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/126655?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/99340?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/arizona-vs-cleveland.

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