---
title: "Arzhankin vs Arce Fernandez"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/arzhankin-vs-arce-fernandez
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-08T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-15T11:05:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-09T09:02:02+00:00
total_volume_usd: 20114.55
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:07:27+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/arzhankin-vs-arce-fernandez
---

# Arzhankin vs Arce Fernandez

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-08 00:00 UTC · $20,115 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Anton Arzhankin** won. Settled 2026-07-09.

## About

This market covers a first-round men's singles match at the 2026 ITF M15 Kursumlijska Banja tournament between Anton Arzhankin and Mario Arce Fernandez, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket list a straightforward head-to-head: the market resolves to whichever player advances, with tie-breaker rules for walkovers, cancellations, or mid-match retirements broadly aligned across the two venues.

Anton Arzhankin is the clear favourite. Kalshi prices him at 96.0%, while Polymarket has him at 79.0%, producing a consensus of roughly 96.0% and marking Arce Fernandez as a heavy underdog at 24.0% on Kalshi and 21.0% on Polymarket. Total volume sits around $10,178, with the bulk of activity concentrated on Kalshi ($10,178 in volume and $9,198 in liquidity) versus a thinner $578 on Polymarket.

The notable feature here is the 17-point gap on Arzhankin between Kalshi (96.0%) and Polymarket (79.0%), which likely reflects Polymarket's very shallow liquidity rather than a genuine disagreement about the match. The cross-platform takeaway: both venues agree Arzhankin is a strong favourite, but Kalshi's deeper book pushes his implied probability materially higher than Polymarket's thinly traded quote.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-08; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Completed Match — 2 outcomes
- ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Mario Arce Fernandez Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Mario Arce Fernandez Set 2 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 22.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/10517?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/13025?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/arzhankin-vs-arce-fernandez.

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