--- title: "Astralis vs Nemiga" canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/astralis-vs-nemiga status: settled kickoff_at: 2026-10-04T16:00:00+00:00 trading_closes_at: 2026-10-06T16:25:00+00:00 settled_at: 2026-10-04T20:49:31+00:00 total_volume_usd: 3432241.54 venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"] categories: ["Sports", "Esports"] prices_as_of: 2026-10-12T20:13:13+00:00 publisher: BetCrypto data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/astralis-vs-nemiga --- # Astralis vs Nemiga Settled · kickoff 2026-10-04 16:00 UTC · $3,432,242 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US ## Result **Astralis** won. Settled 2026-10-04. ## About Astralis and Nemiga meet in a Counter-Strike 2 match in the Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs. Polymarket lists it as a best-of-five Grand Final originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and the market is currently live. Each outcome resolves to the team that wins the full match. The platforms handle disruptions differently. Polymarket resolves 50-50 on cancellation or if the match isn't rescheduled by October 18. Kalshi resolves to a fair market price if the match is cancelled, postponed beyond 48 hours, or forfeited before play begins. Total volume stands at about $2.29 million, mostly on Polymarket. Astralis is the clear favourite with a consensus implied probability of 90.3%, against 9.8% for Nemiga. That gap of roughly 80 points shows traders see Astralis as the overwhelming likely winner at this stage of the live match. The venues price it slightly differently. Kalshi's midpoint puts Astralis at 92.0% and Nemiga at 8.0%, while Polymarket has Astralis at 88.5% and Nemiga at 11.5%. That makes a 3.5-point spread on each outcome. The cheapest Astralis entry is on Polymarket at 89.0%, and the cheapest Nemiga entry is on Kalshi at 9.0%. Polymarket US is excluded from the consensus because its quote is stale and it shows no volume or liquidity. Both active venues agree Astralis is a heavy favourite, but Kalshi leans about 3.5 points more confidently toward Astralis than Polymarket does. _AI-written summary written 2026-10-04; its figures date from then — the table below is live._ ## Other markets - Map 1 — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5) — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 1.5 maps — 2 outcomes - Astralis wins by over 1.5 maps — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 2.5 rounds in map 1 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 3.5 rounds in map 1 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins map 1 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins map 2 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins map 3 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins map 4 — 2 outcomes - Over 20.5 total rounds in map 1 — 1 outcomes - Over 21.5 total rounds in map 1 — 1 outcomes - Over 22.5 total rounds in map 1 — 1 outcomes - Over 20.5 total rounds in map 2 — 1 outcomes - Over 3.5 total maps — 2 outcomes - Over 4.5 total maps — 2 outcomes - Total Maps — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map Handicap: AST (-2.5) vs Nemiga (+2.5) — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs Nemiga (+6.5) — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 — 2 outcomes - Map 2 — 2 outcomes - Map 3 — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-9.5) vs Nemiga (+9.5) — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-12.5) vs Nemiga (+12.5) — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 2.5 rounds in map 2 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 3.5 rounds in map 2 — 2 outcomes - Over 21.5 total rounds in map 2 — 1 outcomes - Over 22.5 total rounds in map 2 — 1 outcomes - Over 20.5 total rounds in map 3 — 1 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs Nemiga (+6.5) — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-9.5) vs Nemiga (+9.5) — 2 outcomes - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 — 2 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 2.5 rounds in map 3 — 1 outcomes - Nemiga wins by over 3.5 rounds in map 3 — 1 outcomes - Over 21.5 total rounds in map 3 — 1 outcomes - Over 22.5 total rounds in map 3 — 1 outcomes - Over 20.5 total rounds in map 4 — 2 outcomes - … and 38 more _Every market's prices are on the event page._ ## Open on a venue - [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/715240?via=md) - [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/715501?via=md) - [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/715569?via=md) --- Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/astralis-vs-nemiga. BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.