---
title: "Atlanta vs New York M"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/atlanta-vs-new-york-m-kalshi-a1793196
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-29T17:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-05T17:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-29T19:51:35+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9298383.33
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:41:45+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/atlanta-vs-new-york-m-kalshi-a1793196
---

# Atlanta vs New York M

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-29 17:10 UTC · $9,298,383 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**New York Mets** won. Settled 2026-07-29.

## About

This July 29 doubleheader at Citi Field stems from a rainout: Tuesday's game between the Braves and Mets was postponed due to heavy rain in the forecast, rescheduled as part of a day-night doubleheader Wednesday. The markets here cover Game 1 (1:10 PM ET), with the moneyline, first-five-innings, spread, totals, and a deep slate of player props all live across Kalshi and Polymarket, with a nominal Azuro listing rounding out the field.

The moneyline is the headline market. Kalshi prices the New York Mets as a narrow 51.0% favourite, while Polymarket sits essentially even at 49.0% for the Mets — a modest 2.0-point cross-platform spread. Azuro is the outlier, implying Atlanta at 58.8%, though its negligible volume renders that figure unreliable. The first-five-innings market on Kalshi shows a near-identical split (Mets 43.0%, Atlanta 42.0%, Tie 16.0%), confirming a very tight contest through the early frames. On the totals, markets lean toward a high-scoring game: Kalshi puts the over-3.5-runs line at 92.0% and the over-8.5 line still at 50.0%.

The pitching matchup is the key driver. New York left-hander Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.52 ERA) starts the opener for the Mets, while AJ Smith-Shawver is expected to be activated from the 60-day injured list to start the first game, making his return after Tommy John surgery, with his fastball sitting at 97.5 mph in his final rehab start and a 1.53 ERA across five minor league outings. Markets largely agree that Smith-Shawver will rack up strikeouts (Kalshi has his 2+ strikeout line at 92.0%), suggesting confidence in his stuff even if his durability remains an open question. Overall, all major platforms are essentially calling this a coin-flip, with the slight Mets edge on Kalshi and Polymarket likely reflecting home-field advantage and Manaea's experience edge over a pitcher returning from major surgery.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-29; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Atlanta Braves — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Austin Riley: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Game 1 Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Game 1 Spread — 6 outcomes
- Game 1 Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Game 1 Home Runs — 6 outcomes
- Game 1 First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- Game 1 First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Game 1 Stolen Bases — 2 outcomes
- Game 1 Total Bases — 76 outcomes
- Game 1 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 81 outcomes
- Game 1 Hits — 59 outcomes
- Game 1 RBIs — 37 outcomes
- Game 1 Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: New York Mets — 2 outcomes
- Austin Riley: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Bo Bichette: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bo Bichette: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Carson Benge: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Carson Benge: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Drake Baldwin: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Drake Baldwin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Francisco Lindor: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Francisco Lindor: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Luis Robert Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Luis Robert Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 10 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/119223?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/106978?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/84463?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/atlanta-vs-new-york-m-kalshi-a1793196.

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