---
title: "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 16600284.18
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Markets", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:57:10+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
---

# Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Live · $16,600,284 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## About

This market asks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the chokepoint between Yemen and the Horn of Africa linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — will be "effectively closed" by various deadlines through the end of 2026. Per the Polymarket resolution criteria, closure is defined by IMF PortWatch data showing a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or below 10 on any date up to the listed deadline. The market is structured as a series of tiered dates, each with its own Yes/No pair, alongside a Limitless companion market pricing the specific month closure might occur.

Across every tier, "No" is the heavy favourite on Polymarket. Near-term deadlines carry the strongest conviction — one "No" leg trades at 99.9%, with others at 96.9%, 87.5% and 81.0% as horizons extend. The corresponding "Yes" probabilities climb from effectively 0.3% up to 20.0% for the longest-dated tier, reflecting more room for disruption over time. On Limitless, the month-selection market gives December 31 the highest weight at 19.4%, followed by October 31 at 12.5% and September 30 at 3.6%.

Cross-platform pricing is tightly aligned, with no material spreads flagged between Polymarket and Limitless: both venues point to continued open transit as the base case, with tail risk concentrated in later-2026 dates.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-21; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 16¢ on Limitless | 16¢ | 16¢ |
| No | 85% | 85¢ on Polymarket | — | 85¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31 — 2 outcomes
- main — 0 outcomes
- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 15 — 2 outcomes
- June 22 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 15 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/580302?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312171?via=md)

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Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by.

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