---
title: "Best LLM at the end of the decade? — Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/best-llm-at-the-end-of-the-decade-dec-31-2029-at-1000-am-et
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-12-31T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4429.71
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:37:52+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/best-llm-at-the-end-of-the-decade-dec-31-2029-at-1000-am-et
---

# Best LLM at the end of the decade? — Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET

Live · $4,430 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. If the top model's organization is not listed, every market resolves No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google | 20% | 24¢ on Kalshi | 24¢ |
| Anthropic | 17% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ |
| OpenAI | — | — | — |
| xAI | — | — | — |
| Meta | — | — | — |
| Moonshot | — | — | — |
| Z AI | — | — | — |
| Xiaomi | — | — | — |
| Tencent | — | — | — |
| DeepSeek | — | — | — |
| MiniMax | — | — | — |
| Mistral | — | — | — |
| Alibaba | — | — | — |
| NVIDIA | — | — | — |
| ByteDance | — | — | — |
| Microsoft | — | — | — |
| Huawei | — | — | — |
| StepFun | — | — | — |
| Amazon | — | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Baidu | — | — | — |
| Thinking Machines | — | — | — |
| China Mobile | — | — | — |
| Institute of Foundation Models | — | — | — |
| Upstage | — | — | — |
| InclusionAI | — | — | — |
| LongCat | — | — | — |
| Cohere | — | — | — |
| Inception | — | — | — |
| Arcee AI | — | — | — |
| Safe Superintelligence | — | — | — |
| Reflection AI | — | — | — |
| Essential AI | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Prime Intellect | — | — | — |
| LG AI Research | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/859127?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/best-llm-at-the-end-of-the-decade-dec-31-2029-at-1000-am-et).

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