---
title: "Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/bitcoin-difficulty-adjustment-at-block-971712
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-21T13:11:02+00:00
total_volume_usd: 0
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Crypto"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:57:12+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/bitcoin-difficulty-adjustment-at-block-971712
---

# Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712?

Live · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment that occurs at the specified block height. Block 971,712 is the next difficulty retarget height and is currently expected to be reached on or around October 18, 2026 (ET).

If the displayed percentage falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".

The difficulty adjustment is the percentage change in Bitcoin network difficulty that takes effect at the specified block height, as displayed in the "Change" column of the Adjustments table on the mempool.space Mining Dashboard. A positive percentage is an "up" adjustment and a negative percentage is a "down" adjustment.

If mempool.space does not display the adjustment for the specified block height within 2 calendar days (ET) after that block height is reached, the adjustment percentage as shown by a consensus of credible block explorers will be used. If block 971,712 has not been reached by 11:59 PM ET on November 15, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket.

The resolution source for this market is the mempool.space Mining Dashboard at https://mempool.space/mining, specifically the "Change" column of the Adjustments table for the specified block height.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the difficulty adjustment percentage as displayed on mempool.space, or, where mempool.space does not display it as described above, the consensus of credible block explorers. Values from other sources will not otherwise be considered for the resolution of this market.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down 0-3% | — | — | — |
| Up 0-3% | — | — | — |
| Down 3-7% | — | — | — |
| Up 3-7% | — | — | — |
| Down >7% | — | — | — |
| Up >7% | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/710891?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/bitcoin-difficulty-adjustment-at-block-971712.

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