--- title: "Boston vs New York M" canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/boston-vs-new-york-m status: settled kickoff_at: 2026-07-10T23:15:00+00:00 trading_closes_at: 2026-07-17T23:15:00+00:00 settled_at: 2026-07-11T03:04:26+00:00 total_volume_usd: 7568396.78 venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"] categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"] prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:41:31+00:00 publisher: BetCrypto data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/boston-vs-new-york-m --- # Boston vs New York M Settled · kickoff 2026-07-10 23:15 UTC · $7,568,397 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket ## Result **Boston Red Sox** won. Settled 2026-07-11. ## About The Boston Red Sox host the New York Mets on July 10, 2026, with the moneyline market showing meaningful disagreement between platforms. Polymarket prices Boston at 58.0% to win outright, while Kalshi's headline moneyline sits at just 44.0% — a 14-point cross-platform spread that stands out against otherwise tightly aligned odds. Kalshi's own separate market lists Boston higher at 69.0%, suggesting the discrepancy may reflect different snapshot moments rather than a persistent gap. On the Mets side, Kalshi implies 56.0% versus Polymarket's 34.0%, again indicating the two order books are reading the matchup differently. Around the moneyline, ancillary markets paint a high-scoring, Mets-leaning picture in-game. Kalshi has over 2.5 total runs at 96.0%, over 4.5 at 82.0%, and over 6.5 at 63.0%, with Polymarket's run-line "Over" priced near 79.5%. The Mets are favored to lead through the first three innings at 78.0% and the first seven at 75.0%, while Boston's first-five win probability sits at 36.0%. Starter markets tilt toward strong outings: Nolan McLean is 89.0% to reach 5+ strikeouts and 78.0% for 18+ outs, with Sonny Gray at 75.0% for 5+ strikeouts.Boston opens a three-game series at Citi Field on Friday, July 10 at 7:15 p.m. ET, with Sonny Gray starting for the Red Sox against the Mets' Nolan McLean. Polymarket's moneyline market prices Boston at 58.0% to win, while one Kalshi book has the Red Sox at just 44.0% — a 14-point cross-platform spread that stands out against otherwise tightly aligned odds. A separate Kalshi listing has Boston higher at 69.0%, hinting the gap reflects stale prints as much as genuine disagreement. The Mets are correspondingly 34.0% on Polymarket versus 56.0% on Kalshi. The market's lean toward Boston makes sense given form: the Red Sox have swept three of their last four opponents, going an MLB-best 11-2 in that span to pull within 2½ games of the Mariners for the final wild-card spot, with their pitchers posting a 1.67 ERA over a six-game winning streak. Gray also brings a track record against this opponent — he is 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA in six starts against the Mets — while McLean is facing the Red Sox for the first time. Sportsbook pricing tells a different story, however: the Red Sox are +105 to the Mets' -130, closer to Kalshi's read than Polymarket's. Ancillary Kalshi markets frame a run-friendly night: over 2.5 total runs at 96.0%, over 4.5 at 82.0%, McLean 89.0% for 5+ strikeouts, and the Mets 78.0% to lead through three innings. The takeaway: platforms broadly agree on a high-scoring game, but disagree sharply on who wins it. _AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._ ## Other markets - Total Runs — 11 outcomes - Spread — 6 outcomes - First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes - First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes - Home Runs — 4 outcomes - First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes - Team Total — 14 outcomes - First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes - Hits — 6 outcomes - Hits + Runs + RBIs — 10 outcomes - Total Bases — 9 outcomes - Strikeouts — 8 outcomes - Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes - First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes - Stolen Bases — 2 outcomes - RBIs — 5 outcomes - Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes - First 5 Innings Winner: Boston Red Sox — 2 outcomes - Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes - Spread -4.5 — 2 outcomes - Spread -5.5 — 2 outcomes - NRFI — 2 outcomes - First 5 Innings Winner: New York Mets — 2 outcomes - Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes - First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes - Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes - Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes - Extra Innings — 2 outcomes _Every market's prices are on the event page._ ## Open on a venue - [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/10346?via=md) - [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/16632?via=md) --- Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/boston-vs-new-york-m. BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.