---
title: "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-04T14:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-10-05T22:19:01+00:00
total_volume_usd: 11133913.78
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-09T03:38:52+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place
---

# Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Settled · $11,133,914 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## Result

**Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva** won. Settled 2026-10-05.

## About

This market asks who will finish second in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate placing runner-up in the popular vote, with resolution tied to the official tally from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. The event is listed across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Polymarket US, with roughly $7.86M in aggregate volume, the vast majority sitting on Polymarket.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the clear favourite at a 71.0% consensus, priced at 72.0% on Polymarket and 69.0% on Kalshi, signalling strong cross-venue agreement that he is the most likely second-place finisher. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sits a distant second at a 28.7% consensus, with Polymarket at 29.1% and Kalshi at 30.0%. No other named candidate registers above roughly 0.5%, indicating traders view the runner-up slot as effectively a two-name race.

The notable dislocation is on Polymarket US, where Flávio Bolsonaro trades at just 57.0% — a 14.5-point gap versus Polymarket's 72.0% — while Lula is quoted at 98.0%, figures that appear inconsistent with the deeper Polymarket and Kalshi books. Across the main venues, pricing on Flávio Bolsonaro as runner-up is tightly aligned; the Polymarket US quotes stand out as the sole meaningful outlier.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-23; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293039?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4941?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/597676?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place).

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