---
title: "Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory — On Oct 25, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-flavio-bolsonaro-margin-of-victory-on-oct-25-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-25T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 11631.46
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:20:42+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-flavio-bolsonaro-margin-of-victory-on-oct-25-2026
---

# Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory — On Oct 25, 2026

Live · $11,631 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% | 74% | 74¢ on Kalshi | 74¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥3% | 59% | 59¢ on Kalshi | 59¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥5% | 49% | 49¢ on Kalshi | 49¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7% | 16% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | 6% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥11% | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/733536?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-flavio-bolsonaro-margin-of-victory-on-oct-25-2026.

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