---
title: "Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — On Oct 25, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-margin-of-victory-on-oct-25-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-25T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 49618.69
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:11:44+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-margin-of-victory-on-oct-25-2026
---

# Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — On Oct 25, 2026

Live · $49,619 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes) received by the candidate named in the market minus the share received by the other candidate in the runoff if the named candidate wins, or the share of the candidate that finishes first if the named candidate loses. If the named candidate wins, the margin will be positive; if the named candidate loses, the margin will be negative; if the named candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% | 32% | 32¢ on Kalshi | 32¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 0-3% | 10% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% | 35% | 35¢ on Kalshi | 35¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 3-6% | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9% | 20% | 20¢ on Kalshi | 20¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 6-9% | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | 6% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥9% | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/732147?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-margin-of-victory-on-oct-25-2026.

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