---
title: "Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad? — On Oct 25, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-who-will-win-the-vote-abroad-on-oct-25-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-25T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 11927.91
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:39:55+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-who-will-win-the-vote-abroad-on-oct-25-2026
---

# Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad? — On Oct 25, 2026

Live · $11,928 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
Rank is based on runoff vote totals only

In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.

The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 70% | 70¢ on Kalshi | 70¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 30% | 30¢ on Kalshi | 30¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/731823?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/brazil-presidential-runoff-who-will-win-the-vote-abroad-on-oct-25-2026.

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