---
title: "Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027 — 2027 season"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/bristol-bay-sockeye-run-forecast-for-2027-2027-season
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-04T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 15240.1
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:41:44+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/bristol-bay-sockeye-run-forecast-for-2027-2027-season
---

# Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027 — 2027 season

Live · $15,240 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “Total run.” The separate “Inshore Run” figure will not be used. The market also will not use the forecast range or prediction interval, escapement, harvestable-surplus figures, individual river or district forecasts, or the actual observed 2027 run.

Only ADF&G’s initial non-preliminary preseason forecast will be used. In-season estimates, postseason run reconstructions, and revisions made after expiration will not affect resolution. If ADF&G provides only a forecast range without a point estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used.

If ADF&G does not use the label “Total run,” the functionally equivalent Bristol Bay-wide figure, "projected total catch plus projected total escapement", will be used.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Between 43 and 48.99 million | 51% | 56¢ on Kalshi | 56¢ |
| Between 37 and 42.99 million | 32% | 35¢ on Kalshi | 35¢ |
| Between 49 and 55 million | 9% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Above 55 million | 6% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Between 29 and 36.99 million | 4% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Below 29 million | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/413547?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/bristol-bay-sockeye-run-forecast-for-2027-2027-season.

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