---
title: "California Governor Primary margin of victory"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory-california-governor-primary-kalshi-39f9fffa
status: ended
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-11T00:40:29+00:00
total_volume_usd: 27289.93
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-11T23:46:45+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory-california-governor-primary-kalshi-39f9fffa
---

# California Governor Primary margin of victory

Ended · $27,290 traded · listed on Kalshi

## Result

Delisted by every venue without a result — this event will not resolve.

## About

If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Steve Hilton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Steve Hilton if Steve Hilton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Steve Hilton loses.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Steve Hilton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Steve Hilton will be summed.

If Steve Hilton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Steve Hilton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Steve Hilton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Steve Hilton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton, 1+ pts | — | — | 0.1¢ |
| Steve Hilton, 3+ pts | — | — | 3¢ |
| Steve Hilton, 5+ pts | — | — | 2.2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1059?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory-california-governor-primary-kalshi-39f9fffa.

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