---
title: "California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — On Nov 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/california-proposition-40-election-margin-of-victory-no-on-nov-3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 15571.64
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:48:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/california-proposition-40-election-margin-of-victory-no-on-nov-3-2026
---

# California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — On Nov 3, 2026

Live · $15,572 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or the option that finishes first if No loses. If No wins, the margin will be positive; if No loses, the margin will be negative; if No ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No, ≥1% | 34% | 59¢ on Kalshi | 59¢ |
| No, ≥4% | 20% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| No, ≥7% | 20% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| No, ≥10% | 22% | 41¢ on Kalshi | 41¢ |
| No, ≥13% | — | — | — |
| No, ≥16% | — | — | — |
| No, ≥19% | — | — | — |
| No, ≥22% | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/600445?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/california-proposition-40-election-margin-of-victory-no-on-nov-3-2026.

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