---
title: "California's 29th District margin of victory — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/californias-29th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 660
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:58:00+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-29th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
---

# California's 29th District margin of victory — In 2026

Live · $660 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Luz Rivas minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Luz Rivas if Luz Rivas wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Luz Rivas loses.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Luz Rivas runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Luz Rivas will be summed.

If Luz Rivas wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Luz Rivas loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Luz Rivas ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Luz Rivas is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luz Rivas, 1+ pts | — | — | — |
| Luz Rivas, 5+ pts | — | — | — |
| Luz Rivas, 10+ pts | — | — | — |
| Luz Rivas, 15+ pts | — | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| Luz Rivas, 20+ pts | — | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| Luz Rivas, 25+ pts | — | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| Luz Rivas, 30+ pts | — | — | — |
| Luz Rivas, 35+ pts | — | — | — |
| Luz Rivas, 40+ pts | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/886640?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-29th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026).

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