---
title: "California's 34th District margin of victory — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/californias-34th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 527.27
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:34:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-34th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
---

# California's 34th District margin of victory — In 2026

Live · $527 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Jimmy Gomez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Jimmy Gomez if Jimmy Gomez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Jimmy Gomez loses.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Jimmy Gomez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Jimmy Gomez will be summed.

If Jimmy Gomez wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Jimmy Gomez loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Jimmy Gomez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Jimmy Gomez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Gomez, 5+ pts | 11% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Jimmy Gomez, 10+ pts | 7% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Jimmy Gomez, 15+ pts | 4% | 6.6¢ on Kalshi | 6.6¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/664753?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-34th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026.

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