---
title: "California's 40th District margin of victory — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/californias-40th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 400
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:34:25+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-40th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
---

# California's 40th District margin of victory — In 2026

Live · $400 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Calvert minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Calvert if Ken Calvert wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Calvert loses.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Calvert runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Calvert will be summed.

If Ken Calvert wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Calvert loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Calvert ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Calvert is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Calvert, 5+ pts | 37% | 42¢ on Kalshi | 42¢ |
| Ken Calvert, 10+ pts | 18% | 23¢ on Kalshi | 23¢ |
| Ken Calvert, 15+ pts | — | — | — |
| Ken Calvert, 20+ pts | — | — | — |
| Ken Calvert, 25+ pts | — | — | — |
| Ken Calvert, 30+ pts | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/636304?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-40th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026.

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