---
title: "California's 4th District margin of victory — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/californias-4th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 226.51
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:34:12+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-4th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026
---

# California's 4th District margin of victory — In 2026

Live · $227 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mike Thompson loses.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mike Thompson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mike Thompson will be summed.

If Mike Thompson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mike Thompson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mike Thompson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mike Thompson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson, 5+ pts | 55% | 55¢ on Kalshi | 55¢ |
| Mike Thompson, 10+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mike Thompson, 15+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mike Thompson, 20+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mike Thompson, 25+ pts | — | — | — |
| Mike Thompson, 30+ pts | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/487973?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/californias-4th-district-margin-of-victory-in-2026.

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