---
title: "Cerundolo vs Gea"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cerundolo-vs-gea
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-31T03:54:43+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5508493.63
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-15T21:36:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cerundolo-vs-gea
---

# Cerundolo vs Gea

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-30 00:00 UTC · $5,508,494 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Arthur Gea** won. Settled 2026-07-31.

## About

This is the 2026 ATP Los Cabos Open quarterfinal between Argentina's Francisco Cerundolo, ranked 20th in the world, and France's Arthur Gea, a 21-year-old currently sitting at No. 127. The match asks simply who advances — Cerundolo or Gea — with Kalshi resolving on a Yes/No basis for a Cerundolo win and Polymarket offering a head-to-head market between the two players.

The market snapshot presents an unusual picture: Arthur Gea is the listed current favourite at 84.0% on the cross-platform consensus, yet this appears driven by a specific Polymarket prop market rather than the straight match-winner question. On the direct match-winner lines, Cerundolo enters as the seeded favourite against the unseeded Frenchman, which aligns with broader context. There is a notable 10-point cross-platform spread on the Francisco Cerundolo outcome, with Kalshi pricing him at 17.0% and Polymarket at just 7.0% in the relevant market.

Context helps explain the setup: Cerundolo advanced after opponent Tristan Boyer retired in the second set — Cerundolo had lost the first set on a tiebreak and was up a break when Boyer withdrew — marking his first match back since an early Wimbledon exit. Meanwhile, Gea has played two tough three-set matches in Los Cabos, including a dramatic comeback against Michael Zheng where he lost the first set 0-6 before winning the next two — highlighting both his fighting quality and his inconsistency. Gea carries a 78% win rate on hard courts and a 5-2 record in 2026 quarterfinals.

With $4.9M in volume concentrated on Kalshi and a 10-point spread on Cerundolo's match-winner odds across platforms, this market rewards close attention to which specific proposition is being priced.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-31; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea Set 2 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 22.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Completed Match — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/136440?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/137421?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cerundolo-vs-gea.

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