---
title: "Chicago C vs Cincinnati"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/chicago-c-vs-cincinnati
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-10T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-17T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-11T01:54:28+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5142172.97
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T20:28:06+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/chicago-c-vs-cincinnati
---

# Chicago C vs Cincinnati

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-10 23:10 UTC · $5,142,173 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cincinnati Reds** won. Settled 2026-07-11.

## About

This is the opening game of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park on July 10, 2026. The Cubs are heavy favorites in the standings (52-41) vs Reds (42-50), yet the markets have this as a near-coin-flip. Let me write the description.

The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds opened a three-game weekend series at Great American Ball Park on July 10, with the winner-take-all moneyline market resolving to whichever club wins the game outright. Two NL Central squads — the Chicago Cubs (52-41) and the Cincinnati Reds (42-50) — met on Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.

Pricing is essentially a coin flip with a slight Chicago lean. Polymarket has the Cubs at 53.0% and the Reds at 48.0%, while Kalshi flips the read the other way at 48.0% Cubs and 52.0% Reds — a 5-point cross-platform spread on the favourite that reflects genuine disagreement rather than mispricing. The consensus favourite is Chicago at 53.0%, but the market clearly views this as close to a pick'em despite the Cubs' 10-game edge in the standings. Totals lean under (Polymarket "Under" 76.0%), and Kalshi prices over 3.5 runs at 91.0% and over 6.5 at 54.0%.

The tight line makes sense given the pitching matchup and recent form. Cincinnati sends Hunter Greene to the mound for his second start of the season; the right-hander last pitched against Baltimore, throwing 3 1/3 innings and giving up eight earned runs, leaving him with a 21.60 ERA in one game. The Cubs counter with Shota Imanaga (5-7, 4.28 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 103 2/3 innings). Third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes was activated off the injured list by the Reds before the game. Across platforms, the takeaway is a genuine toss-up with Polymarket and Kalshi disagreeing on which side gets the marginal edge.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 8 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Home Runs — 6 outcomes
- Hits — 12 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- Total Bases — 14 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 3 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- RBIs — 6 outcomes
- Alex Bregman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Chicago Cubs — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -4.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- Alex Bregman: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cincinnati Reds — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Elly De La Cruz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Elly De La Cruz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 30 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/10506?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/17355?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/chicago-c-vs-cincinnati.

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