---
title: "China ballistic missile launch by December 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14071.97
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T18:52:41+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31
---

# China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

Live · $14,072 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 83% | 83¢ on Polymarket | 83¢ |
| Yes | 18% | 18¢ on Polymarket | 18¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/14368?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31.

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