---
title: "Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cleveland-guardians-vs-minnesota-twins-polymarket-85a83b94
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-09T17:40:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-16T17:40:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-10T00:01:49+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3526551.13
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:43:30+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-guardians-vs-minnesota-twins-polymarket-85a83b94
---

# Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-09 17:40 UTC · $3,526,551 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cleveland Guardians** won. Settled 2026-07-10.

## About

The Cleveland Guardians (47-45) visit the Minnesota Twins (45-47) at Target Field on July 9 for the finale of a three-game series, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. The market resolves to whichever team wins the game outright, with any tie or cancellation resolving 50-50 on Polymarket. Minnesota is the current favourite on aggregate at 67.0%, though the pricing diverges sharply by venue: Cleveland sends Gavin Williams (9-4, 3.89 ERA) against Minnesota's Bailey Ober (6-3, 4.59 ERA), and traditional sportsbooks actually have Cleveland as the road favourite.

Across platforms, Polymarket prices the Twins at 67.0% while Kalshi has them at 54.0% and Azuro at 54.1% — a 13-point spread that is unusually wide for an MLB moneyline. Cleveland sits at 34.0% on Polymarket, 47.0% on Kalshi and 46.5% on Azuro, with Azuro also pricing a 12.6% draw leg that partially explains its compressed two-way numbers. Kalshi and Azuro effectively call the game a coin flip leaning slightly Minnesota, while Polymarket is a clear outlier tilting harder toward the home side.

That Polymarket lean runs against the sportsbook consensus: numberFire projects the Twins to win with 51.5% probability, with Cleveland listed at -134 on the moneyline and Minnesota a +114 underdog despite being at home, and BetMGM's model gives Minnesota 54.3% confidence. Kalshi and Azuro track that book-implied range closely; Polymarket does not — the cross-platform takeaway is a Minnesota-favoured market where Polymarket's 13-point premium on the Twins is the standout dislocation.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-09; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 5 outcomes
- Hits — 3 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Total Bases — 4 outcomes
- Home Runs — 2 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- RBIs — 2 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/12717?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/3711?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/11231?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-guardians-vs-minnesota-twins-polymarket-85a83b94.

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