---
title: "Cleveland vs Cincinnati"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cleveland-vs-cincinnati-kalshi-146c65ea
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-28T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-04T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-29T01:39:42+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4489713.7
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T21:24:15+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-cincinnati-kalshi-146c65ea
---

# Cleveland vs Cincinnati

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-28 23:10 UTC · $4,489,714 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cincinnati Reds** won. Settled 2026-07-29.

## About

This is an MLB doubleheader (Game 2, the 7:10 PM ET nightcap) between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 28, 2026. The nightcap exists because Monday's series opener was rained out, forcing a split doubleheader that pushed Gavin Williams and Cincinnati's bullpen into the 7:10 PM finale. Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket cover the full-game moneyline, first-five-innings winner, run totals, spread, and an extensive suite of player props centred on Elly De La Cruz (RBIs, home runs, total bases, hits) and Gavin Williams (strikeouts).

On the moneyline, Cincinnati is the narrow favourite at 54.0% on both Kalshi and Polymarket — a near coin-flip with Cleveland at 46.0–47.0%, a cross-platform spread of just 1.0 point. Pregame odds had Cleveland as a -132 favourite with Gavin Williams on the mound, but neither club is exactly rolling — Cleveland (54-53) had lost five straight entering the day, while Cincinnati (49-55) has been inconsistent in a lost NL Central season. Notably, Kyle Manzardo hit a grand slam and the Guardians rallied for a 6-5 win over Cincinnati in Game 1, potentially shifting sentiment heading into the nightcap. The run-total markets lean high-scoring: Kalshi prices over 3.5 runs at 92.0% and over 7.5 runs at 61.0%, reflecting Cincinnati's bullpen-opener approach. The Gavin Williams strikeout prop sits at 94.0% for 5+ K's, signalling strong confidence in the Cleveland starter's ability to rack up punchouts regardless of the team result.

Across both platforms, moneyline pricing is tightly aligned with virtually no arbitrage gap, making this one of the more efficiently priced games on the board today.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-28; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cleveland Guardians — 2 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Game 2 First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Game 2 Strikeouts — 8 outcomes
- Game 2 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 5 outcomes
- Game 2 Home Runs — 2 outcomes
- Game 2 Hits — 4 outcomes
- Game 2 Total Bases — 5 outcomes
- Game 2 RBIs — 3 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cincinnati Reds — 2 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Chase DeLauter: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chase DeLauter: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Elly De La Cruz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Elly De La Cruz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- JJ Bleday: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- JJ Bleday: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- José Ramírez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- José Ramírez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Manzardo: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Manzardo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 9 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/102058?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/78399?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-cincinnati-kalshi-146c65ea.

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