---
title: "Cleveland vs Cincinnati"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cleveland-vs-cincinnati
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-27T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-03T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-28T20:39:38+00:00
total_volume_usd: 24236691.29
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T21:23:15+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-cincinnati
---

# Cleveland vs Cincinnati

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-27 23:10 UTC · $24,236,691 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cleveland Guardians** won. Settled 2026-07-28.

## About

This is the opening game of a three-game interleague series between the visiting Cleveland Guardians and the host Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, scheduled for July 27 at 7:10 PM ET. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the moneyline market crowns Cincinnati the favourite — Kalshi prices the Reds at 60.0% and Polymarket sits one point lower at 59.0%, the only notable cross-platform spread in the event. Cleveland's win probability lands at 41.0% on both platforms, giving the Reds roughly a 19-point edge.

The pitching matchup is the primary driver. Chase Burns (12-1) takes the mound for the Reds in his 20th start of the season, a stark contrast to Cleveland's Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA). Kalshi's 87.0% implied probability that Burns records 4+ strikeouts and 53.0% that he logs 17+ outs reflect confidence in a long, effective outing. Context reinforces the Reds' edge: Cincinnati returns home after completing a 6-3 road trip, winning its third consecutive series, while Cleveland arrives at 54-53 having dropped five consecutive games and going 3-7 over their last ten. Cincinnati has hit 19 home runs over its past 10 games and recorded 29 extra-base hits while slugging .431 — a hot offence stepping into a hitter-friendly park. Run-total markets on Kalshi reflect a high-scoring expectation, with over 8.5 combined runs at 54.0% implied probability.

Across all markets, pricing is tightly aligned with negligible cross-platform spread on virtually every line, signalling strong consensus between Polymarket and Kalshi that Cincinnati's superior starting pitching and recent momentum make them clear, if not overwhelming, favourites tonight.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-27; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Home Runs — 6 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- Brayan Rocchio: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cleveland Guardians — 2 outcomes
- Total Bases — 14 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Hits — 10 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 18 outcomes
- RBIs — 39 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Dane Myers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Dane Myers: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Manzardo: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Manzardo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Patrick Bailey: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Patrick Bailey: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Steven Kwan: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Steven Kwan: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Travis Bazzana: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 38 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/95521?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/72177?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-cincinnati.

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