---
title: "Cleveland vs Miami"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cleveland-vs-miami-kalshi-2e8ebc4f
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-12T17:40:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-19T17:40:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-12T20:14:53+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4351616.13
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T16:36:33+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-miami-kalshi-2e8ebc4f
---

# Cleveland vs Miami

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-12 17:40 UTC · $4,351,616 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cleveland Guardians** won. Settled 2026-07-12.

## About

This market covers the MLB regular-season game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM ET. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the market resolves to the winning team, with postponements handled by keeping the market open until the makeup game is played. Azuro additionally lists a draw outcome, which is not offered on the binary US markets.

Miami is the favourite across every venue. Polymarket implies the Marlins at 55.5% versus the Guardians at 44.5%, while Kalshi has Miami at 55.0% and Cleveland at 45.0%. Azuro prices Miami slightly higher at 57.8% and Cleveland lower at 42.2%, with a 12.6% carve-out for the draw. The consensus favourite sits around 55%, roughly a 10-point edge for Miami — a modest lean rather than a decisive one.

Cross-platform pricing is unusually tight: Polymarket and Kalshi agree within half a point on both sides, and Azuro's apparent gap on Cleveland (42.2% vs 44.5–45.0%) is largely explained by its draw outcome absorbing probability mass. Liquidity is heaviest on Polymarket ($25k) despite Kalshi carrying most of the traded volume so far. Overall, the platforms are aligned on Miami as a mild favourite, with no meaningful arbitrage-style spread on either side.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Home Runs — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 13 outcomes
- RBIs — 2 outcomes
- Hits — 3 outcomes
- Spread — 9 outcomes
- Total Bases — 3 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 5 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 13 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22377?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/16579?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22857?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-miami-kalshi-2e8ebc4f.

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