---
title: "Cleveland vs Miami"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cleveland-vs-miami
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-10T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-17T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-11T01:39:40+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5802019.05
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T16:34:01+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-miami
---

# Cleveland vs Miami

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-10 23:10 UTC · $5,802,019 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cleveland Guardians** won. Settled 2026-07-11.

## About

The Cleveland Guardians host the Miami Marlins on July 10, 2026, in an interleague MLB matchup, with prediction markets pricing Cleveland as clear favourites. A Cleveland win resolves the moneyline to Yes; a Miami win resolves it the other way, with postponements held open until completion.

On the moneyline, both Kalshi and Polymarket agree tightly: Cleveland sits at 71.0% on each venue, with Miami at 29.0–30.0%. That gives Cleveland roughly a 41-point edge over the Marlins and effectively zero cross-platform spread — a rare case of full consensus between the two largest venues on this event. Cleveland's dominance carries into the derivative markets too, with an 80.0% implied probability of leading through five innings, 85.0% through seven, and a 54.0% chance of winning by more than 1.5 runs. Total runs markets lean under, with over 6.5 pricing at exactly 50.0% and over 7.5 at 36.0%, suggesting a lower-scoring script.

The pricing tracks the pitching matchup: Miami sends Sandy Alcantara, while Cleveland counters with Parker Messick, whose strikeout line (3+ at 79.0%) and outs-recorded line (18+ at 79.0%) imply markets expect a full, effective start. Player props on Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter round out a deep Kalshi slate. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the takeaway is unusually clean: both books see Cleveland as a comfortable but not overwhelming home favourite, with no arbitrage gap to speak of on the headline market.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Home Runs — 2 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Total Bases — 3 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Hits — 3 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 5 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 18 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- RBIs — 36 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/11515?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/17490?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-miami.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.