---
title: "Cleveland vs Tampa Bay"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cleveland-vs-tampa-bay-kalshi-bd775709
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-26T16:15:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-02T16:15:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-26T18:19:38+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9493720.43
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-14T02:02:18+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-tampa-bay-kalshi-bd775709
---

# Cleveland vs Tampa Bay

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-26 16:15 UTC · $9,493,720 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Tampa Bay Rays** won. Settled 2026-07-26.

## About

This market covers the MLB game between the visiting Cleveland Guardians and the host Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, with first pitch scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET on July 26. The moneyline is the headline market, resolving simply on which team wins the full nine innings.

The Guardians are a narrow favourite at 52.0% on Kalshi and 51.0% on Polymarket, while the Rays come in at 51.0% on Kalshi and 50.0% on Polymarket — a near coin-flip. Azuro leans the other way, pricing Tampa Bay (60-43) as the slight favourite over Cleveland (54-51), which is more consistent with traditional oddsmaker lines: the Rays opened as -140 favourites on mainstream books, with the Guardians at +115. The prediction-market edge toward Cleveland may reflect recency hedging rather than a genuine structural view.

Context helps explain the tension. The Guardians have lost four straight, and the Rays hold a 4-1 advantage in the season series. Tampa Bay has hit 11 home runs and tallied 32 extra-base hits over its last 10 games, slugging .439. On the pitching side, Drew Rasmussen starts for Tampa Bay with Parker Messick going for Cleveland, and strikeout markets for Rasmussen price him at 92.0% to reach 6+ Ks, suggesting confidence in his sharpness today. The total-runs market on Kalshi sits at 93.0% for over 1.5 runs and 45.0% for over 5.5, indicating expectations for a modest-scoring game. Cross-platform spreads on the moneyline are negligible at just 1.0 point, signalling tight consensus — though Azuro's implied Rays probability of 52.9% stands as the one divergent signal worth monitoring.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-26; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Cleveland Guardians — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total Bases — 16 outcomes
- RBIs — 9 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 14 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 20 outcomes
- Home Runs — 7 outcomes
- Hits — 13 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 4 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Tampa Bay Rays — 2 outcomes
- Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Brayan Rocchio: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brayan Rocchio: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chandler Simpson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chandler Simpson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chase DeLauter: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chase DeLauter: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 20 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/100688?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/89110?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/65930?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cleveland-vs-tampa-bay-kalshi-bd775709.

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