---
title: "Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire? — On Nov 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/closer-senate-race-michigan-or-new-hampshire-on-nov-3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-10T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14551.98
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:06:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/closer-senate-race-michigan-or-new-hampshire-on-nov-3-2026
---

# Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire? — On Nov 3, 2026

Live · $14,552 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan US Senate | 79% | 88¢ on Kalshi | 88¢ |
| New Hampshire US Senate | 21% | 30¢ on Kalshi | 30¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/684339?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/closer-senate-race-michigan-or-new-hampshire-on-nov-3-2026.

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