---
title: "Closest House race in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/closest-house-race-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-03T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 13.11
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:26:59+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/closest-house-race-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027
---

# Closest House race in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027

Live · $13 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.

Every U.S. House general election held November 3, 2026 is compared, not only the districts listed here, so if the smallest margin is in an unlisted district every market in this event resolves NO. Special elections to fill a vacancy do NOT count.

Votes for a candidate listed on more than one party line are combined.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO-04 | — | — | — |
| FL-14 | — | — | — |
| FL-25 | — | — | — |
| IA-03 | — | — | — |
| MI-04 | — | — | — |
| MI-07 | — | — | — |
| NC-11 | — | — | — |
| NY-17 | — | — | — |
| TX-34 | — | — | — |
| WI-03 | — | — | — |
| IA-02 | — | — | — |
| ME-02 | — | — | — |
| MT-01 | — | — | — |
| NC-01 | — | — | — |
| OH-09 | — | — | — |
| PA-01 | — | — | — |
| TX-15 | — | — | — |
| TX-35 | — | — | — |
| VA-01 | — | — | — |
| AL-02 | — | — | — |
| AZ-02 | — | — | — |
| CO-03 | — | — | — |
| FL-07 | — | — | — |
| FL-09 | — | — | — |
| FL-13 | — | — | — |
| FL-22 | — | — | — |
| MI-10 | — | — | — |
| MN-01 | — | — | — |
| NV-02 | — | — | — |
| NY-21 | — | — | — |
| SC-01 | — | — | — |
| TX-23 | — | — | — |
| WI-01 | — | — | — |
| AK-AL | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1114383?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/closest-house-race-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027).

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