---
title: "Closest Senate race in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/closest-senate-race-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-03T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 774493.09
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:20:43+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/closest-senate-race-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027
---

# Closest Senate race in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027

Live · $774,493 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 19% | 19¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ |
| Texas | 13% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 13¢ |
| Kansas | 11% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Maine | 10% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Ohio | 8% | 8.2¢ on Kalshi | 8.2¢ |
| Nebraska | 8% | 8.1¢ on Kalshi | 8.1¢ |
| Alaska | 6% | 6.5¢ on Kalshi | 6.5¢ |
| Michigan | 6% | 6.3¢ on Kalshi | 6.3¢ |
| South Carolina | 6% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| New Hampshire | 4% | 3.9¢ on Kalshi | 3.9¢ |
| Florida | 4% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Minnesota | 2% | 2.9¢ on Kalshi | 2.9¢ |
| Idaho | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Montana | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Georgia | 1% | 1.7¢ on Kalshi | 1.7¢ |
| North Carolina | 1% | 1.6¢ on Kalshi | 1.6¢ |
| South Dakota | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Arkansas | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Louisiana | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Mississippi | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293285?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/closest-senate-race-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027.

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