---
title: "Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/confirmed-irkutsk-plague-cases-in-oct-2026-before-nov-1-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 40118.29
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:48:28+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/confirmed-irkutsk-plague-cases-in-oct-2026-before-nov-1-2026
---

# Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Live · $40,118 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period.

A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 16% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| 2 or more | 11% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| 5 or more | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/725845?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/confirmed-irkutsk-plague-cases-in-oct-2026-before-nov-1-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.