---
title: "Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/confirmed-pneumonic-plague-case-in-russia-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 69721.35
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:44:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/confirmed-pneumonic-plague-case-in-russia-by
---

# Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

Live · $69,721 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify.

The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 15, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 7¢ |
| No | 94% | 95¢ on Polymarket | 95¢ |

## Other markets

- October 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/703278?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/confirmed-pneumonic-plague-case-in-russia-by.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.