---
title: "Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cory-sandhagen-vs-mario-bautista
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-11T21:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-12T05:35:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-12T03:05:43+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1035942.07
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:57:48+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cory-sandhagen-vs-mario-bautista
---

# Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-11 21:00 UTC · $1,035,942 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Mario Bautista** won. Settled 2026-07-12.

## About

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista is a bantamweight bout on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 main card, scheduled for July 11, 2026. Prediction markets on Polymarket resolve to the fighter officially declared the winner, with draws, No Contests, or cancellations beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi and Azuro list adjacent markets covering the winner and the round of finish.

Sandhagen is the favourite on the moneyline at a consensus 57.5%, with Polymarket pricing him at 57.5% and Azuro slightly higher at 60.6%. Bautista sits at 42.5% on Polymarket and 45.7% on Azuro. That's a modest edge for Sandhagen — roughly a 15-point gap — signalling markets view him as the pick but far from a lock. Round and total-round props lean toward the fight going deep: Polymarket's "Over" lines cluster at 68.5% to 84.0%, and Azuro prices Over 1.5 rounds at 83.3% and Over 2.5 at 74.6%. Kalshi puts the chance of the fight ending before round 3 at 26.0% and before round 2 at 23.0%.

Cross-platform, pricing is broadly aligned, with Azuro tilting a few points more generous to both fighters than Polymarket on the moneyline.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Round of Finish — 2 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Sandhagen to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Bautista to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22792?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/13145?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6710?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cory-sandhagen-vs-mario-bautista.

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