---
title: "Cuban regime falls in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1791702.67
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:52:49+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026
---

# Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Live · $1,791,703 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.

Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 91% | 91¢ on Polymarket | 91¢ |
| Yes | 10% | 10¢ on Polymarket | 10¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5031?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026.

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