---
title: "Dems' best tossup Senate race?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/dems-best-tossup-senate-race
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7264.33
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:07:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/dems-best-tossup-senate-race
---

# Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Live · $7,264 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. 

Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.

If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.  

In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 42% | 42¢ on Polymarket | 42¢ |
| Maine | 23% | 24¢ on Polymarket | 24¢ |
| Alaska | 12% | 13¢ on Polymarket | 13¢ |
| Texas | 12% | 14¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ |
| Ohio  | 9% | 11¢ on Polymarket | 11¢ |
| Iowa | 4% | 6.3¢ on Polymarket | 6.3¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/419145?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/dems-best-tossup-senate-race.

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