---
title: "Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Gauthier Onclin"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/diego-dedura-palomero-vs-gauthier-onclin
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-25T10:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-01T10:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-25T12:30:15+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1757038.24
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:19:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/diego-dedura-palomero-vs-gauthier-onclin
---

# Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Gauthier Onclin

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-25 10:00 UTC · $1,757,038 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Diego Dedura-Palomero** won. Settled 2026-07-25.

## About

This is a semifinal match at the 2026 ATP Challenger event in Tampere, Finland, at Centre Court, pitting two contrasting prospects against each other. Diego Dedura-Palomero is an 18-year-old German professional who has been one of the more eye-catching young players on the Challenger circuit, while Gauthier Onclin has been in strong form throughout this tournament — winning his quarterfinal against T. Gentzsch 6-2, 7-6(6) on July 24, the day before this semifinal.

On the outright winner market, Gauthier Onclin is the consensus favourite at 58.0%, though there is a notable 11-point spread across platforms: Kalshi prices Onclin at 58.0% while Polymarket has him at 47.0%, with Azuro sitting at 43.5%. Dedura-Palomero sits at 43.0% on Kalshi — the deepest and most liquid venue with over $1.1 million in volume — versus 54.0% on Polymarket and 63.3% on Azuro, where he is actually listed as the favourite. The 11-point spread on both players makes this one of the wider cross-platform disagreements in the market. On games lines, the Under 2.5 sets is marginally favoured at 61.5% on Polymarket and 65.4% on Azuro, suggesting markets lean toward a straight-sets finish.

Kalshi's dominant liquidity ($580,048) makes it the most informative signal here, and its lean toward Onclin is consistent with his unbeaten run at Tampere this week. Overall, platforms agree that this is a close contest, but the Kalshi–Polymarket–Azuro spread means there is meaningful disagreement about which player actually enters the semifinal as the favourite.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-25; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Tampere: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Gauthier Onclin Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Tampere: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Gauthier Onclin Set 2 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 3 outcomes
- Total O/U 22.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23.5 — 2 outcomes
- Handicap -0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Completed Match — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 13 — 2 outcomes
- 1st Set: Total Games — 2 outcomes
- Handicap -1 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23 — 2 outcomes
- 1st Set: Handicap Games — 4 outcomes
- Total O/U 11.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total Games Odd/Even — 2 outcomes
- 1st Set: Total Games — 2 outcomes
- Handicap 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10 — 2 outcomes
- 1st Set: Winner — 2 outcomes
- Handicap 3 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21 — 2 outcomes
- Handicap -4 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 11 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 20 — 2 outcomes
- Handicap -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Handicap 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 22 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 20.5 — 2 outcomes
- Handicap -2 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12 — 2 outcomes
- 1st Set: Handicap Games — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/97655?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/95272?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/93436?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/diego-dedura-palomero-vs-gauthier-onclin.

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